A few unexpected results last week highlighted by the defeat of Ireland in the hands of Japan, as result almost as unlikely as the Japanese defeat of South Africa back in 2015.
After a good start in the first games, we’ve had a few results not go our way, but we’ve plenty of time to turn things around.
Two games on Thursday, but whilst we’d expect Fiji to prove their last game against Uruguay not to be a true reflection of their ability, and under normal circumstances giving a 9 point start to Georgia should almost prove to be a formality, they were so disjointed last time I just can’t advise a bet.
It’s proven to be tough for the big teams to make up the handicap given by the bookmakers in a number of games, so I guess credit to them and again Ireland giving Russia a 53 point start probably looks about right and one that’s too tight to call.
The one game on Friday however should see South Africa prove far too strong for Italy and I’m keen to play in this match with the Springboks easily capable of giving Italy a 29 point start.
Both teams have played Namibia and the fact Italy conceded 22 points against the Namibians highlights the potential of a big score from South Africa. Italy have since beaten Canada decisively, but New Zealand showed in beating Canada 63-0 that they’re a pretty average side. South Africa having pushed New Zealand close in their first game completely dominated possession against Namibia when winning 57-3 last week and I expect they’ll be much too good for Italy.
A strong line up for South Africa, I expect them to dominate possession, be too strong and powerful for the Italian forwards and then unleash their potent backs with Cheslin Kolbe hopefully nabbing a few tries. If Italy try to spoil the game, Handre Pollard may rack up a good few points.
South Africa – 28 or -29 depending on your preferred bookmaker at 10/11 – WON
This weekend sees a number of games with 5 matches in total and another chance to see England.
I am sure to be advising a bet in 2 or 3 of those matches and will update nearing the weekend.
I’ll also be looking at the other markets for the South Africa game, with the possibility of a try scorer bet if I see any value.